RUSAL: Seeking Growth Opportunities in a Challenging International Aluminum Market [[SMM Aluminum Conference]]

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Main Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong AIS Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., Inga Simonenko, Head of Marketing and Low-Carbon Solutions at Rusal, discussed "Exploring Growth Opportunities in a Challenging International Aluminum Market."

Topics of great interest in the aluminum industry

include the uncertainty in demand recovery due to a new round of trade tensions, the reshaping of supply chains by deglobalization, the challenge posed by the US to the decarbonization agenda, the implementation of carbon taxes, the growth of low-carbon demand, and competition with data centers for low-carbon energy.

Global trade and geopolitical tensions have suppressed demand, increased logistics costs, and raised carbon footprints.

Meanwhile, China's market share in aluminum semis and aluminum products in developing countries continues to grow.

From the perspectives of product categories and trading partners, she introduced China's exports of aluminum products and aluminum wheels.

In 2024, the construction sector remained a weak link in the growth of aluminum demand.

The recovery of construction activities in regions such as Southeast Asia has become one of the opportunities for demand growth.

Key influencing factors:

In many developed economies, declining interest rates and persistent housing shortages will drive growth in construction activities.

Infrastructure investment is shifting from transportation to utilities. To achieve climate goals, there is a renewed focus on decarbonizing the power grid.

Emerging Asia will be the fastest-growing region. Strong demographic trends, significant foreign investment, and government policies will ensure that Southeast Asia has the fastest-growing construction market.

Increased geopolitical uncertainty may drive up construction costs.

In 2025, the power and automotive sectors will be the two key drivers of aluminum demand growth.

Electric vehicles (EVs) play a significant role in driving aluminum demand growth in the automotive industry, while the growth trend in vehicle production is difficult to sustain, posing further challenges.

Five major components driving aluminum usage per vehicle: electric drive housing, battery pack housing, large/mega castings, protective components, and battery cooling plates.

Primary aluminum demand in developed countries has started to recover from a low base compared to the peak in 2018.

As China seeks new growth points, demand in the rest of the world is accelerating.

The global market will shift from balance in 2024 to shortage in 2025.

The implementation of US import tariffs in 2025 has emerged as a major challenge for regional trade flows, potentially curbing the growth of aluminum demand.

Additionally, Trump's reduction in funding for the decarbonization agenda will increase the cost of the US's low-carbon transition.

This has hindered the net-zero transition and the growth of low-carbon aluminum demand in the US and globally.

Enterprises with ESG principles are adjusting their decarbonization goals—only a minority of aluminum end-users are practicing them.

It lists the revisions and progress of decarbonization goals of some well-known enterprises.

Meanwhile, the establishment of regional premiums for low-carbon aluminum underscores the sustained growth in demand for low-carbon aluminum.

In the foreseeable future, primary aluminum will remain the primary metal source, while the share of secondary aluminum will increase.

The ceiling on China's primary aluminum capacity is accelerating the advancement of new smelting projects overseas.

Aluminum smelter projects relying on high-carbon energy pose challenges to green development.

At the same time, China has introduced policies to promote the low-carbon development of the aluminum industry.

By 2030, the electricity required by data centers will exceed the total consumption of all aluminum smelters by 50%, and the aluminum demand for infrastructure will also increase significantly.

It introduces: Data centers, like aluminum producers, require a reliable source of electricity.

Led by changes in US trade and ESG policies, the aluminum industry is facing new challenges.

Revisions to US trade and ESG policies: Posing challenges to overall aluminum demand, reviewing global ESG issues, reshaping supply chains, reviewing global carbon pricing, cost inflation pressures, and posing challenges to low-carbon aluminum demand.

Finally, it introduces Rusal: Committed to sustainable and low-carbon aluminum development (LCA).

》Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo